ChatGPT and Newton’s Apple: Abstraction Remains a Ceiling, but Routine Work Is at Risk

I heard a pretty good analogy about ChatGPT today. When an apple hit Newton, besides feeling the pain, he had a flash of insight. He abstracted the physical laws of gravity and universal gravitation, then extended them to the interactions and movements of celestial bodies. If an apple hit ChatGPT, its response would explain what happens when you are hit by an apple, how to avoid being hit, and the benefits of eating apples. The ability to abstract a theory—to connect several seemingly unrelated things and develop a systematic explanation—remains ChatGPT’s ceiling for now. ---- What I would add is that even though ChatGPT has limitations, a great physicist like Newton, who shapes the development of physics for generations to come, is an exceptionally rare genius. Perhaps only one person in several million has that capacity for abstraction. The routine work done by the vast majority of ordinary people still faces a considerable threat in the foreseeable future. So what work will be replaced? Think about what you do now. Could someone else do it just as well, or even better? Will designers and artists be replaced? If designer B can produce much the same result as designer A, there is a strong chance that this work, too, faces risks in the AI era. Looking at the nearer term, consider A and B. A actively learns new ways of working and new skills, and embraces ChatGPT. B waits passively and continues the same daily routine. In the short term, it may not be that both A and B are replaced. Rather, A uses ChatGPT effectively at work, greatly increases productivity, and takes over B’s work.