Bubbles, Slumps, and Recovery: Crises Incubate the Next Big Thing

Originally published 2022-06-15Robin’s commentary (as of June 2022; not a promise of returns)

Storage information

Bookmarks and reading positions are stored in this browser. Manage and back them up in My Reading.

Collected in Robin Shen’s Field Notes · Content type and attribution are shown above

English translation of the Chinese post originally published 2022-06-15. Translated 2026-10-31 with AI assistance. Historical figures and claims have not been updated or independently verified. 中文原文

Reading guide

Robin argues that industries and economies cycle through bubbles, slumps, and recovery. Uncompetitive companies are eliminated, while survivors reach new highs; he cites Google and Amazon after the 2000 dot-com bubble. Crises also incubate larger opportunities: Bitcoin and blockchain, the sharing economy, cloud services, and SaaS emerged after 2008. As another storm gathers in 2022, he argues that early-stage investors should think harder about the next big thing and position themselves a year or two ahead—waiting where the wind will blow rather than chasing it.

Key points

Industries and economies cycle through bubbles, slumps, and recovery.
Technology giants that survived the dot-com bubble later reached new highs.
Crises incubate opportunities, as illustrated by industries after 2008—a retrospective attribution.
Early-stage investors should position for the next trend in advance rather than chase it.

Trees at different stages of growth with connected roots on cream paper, suggesting patient cultivation and lasting value. — Venture capital & investmentThematic illustration · AI generated

Full text — English translation

In my recent posts, I have essentially been discussing the same thing. Industries and economies cycle through three phases: bubbles, slumps, and recovery. Uncompetitive companies are eliminated. Competitive survivors return to their previous heights and reach new highs. The 2000 dot-com bubble was one such trial. Today’s technology giants Google, founded in 1998, and Amazon, founded in 1994, both went through it, eventually becoming giants that generated returns of thousands of times the original investment for shareholders. Crises also mean that even greater opportunities are being incubated. The 2008 financial crisis gave rise to Bitcoin and the beginning of blockchain, the surge of the sharing economy, cloud services—computing, storage, and transmission—and SaaS services. Another storm is gathering in 2022. For those of us in early-stage investing, the more important question is: what will be the next big thing? Ideally, position yourself a year or two early. Sit where the wind will blow and wait for it, rather than constantly chasing it.

These articles are personal notes, book excerpts, and collected reprints. Figures and events reflect the time of the original publication, are not current information, and do not constitute investment advice.

DISCUSSION

Reader comments

What did this article make you think about? Different perspectives and constructive criticism are welcome.

Comments are public immediately. Do not include personal contact details or external links. Automated checks block suspicious solicitation, prohibited transactions and spam; they can make mistakes.

Comments load when you reach this section.

Administrator sign-in