Taiwan’s ‘Boosted Years’: Prosperity for Some, Pressure for Others

Projected 2025 GDP growth: 7.41%... Unsurprisingly, the main driver is rapid export growth of 32%, bringing projected trade-surplus growth close to 42% and exports to 19 trillion. Yet the headline surge hides uneven fortunes. Many traditional industries, machining businesses, and machine-tool companies remain under tariff pressure, while another group of technology businesses rides the trend upward. ---- A note on year-on-year trade-surplus growth: only the first quarter, at 4.1%, was below double digits. In the second, third, and fourth quarters, Taiwan’s economy seemed supercharged, with trade-surplus growth above 50% and rising each quarter. ---- With a very high 2025 base, Academia Sinica’s forecast for 2026 economic growth is lower at 3.7%. It still depends on whether the AI boom continues... ---- Taiwan’s ‘boosted years’ began in 2017 with Trump’s first term. US–China rivalry → Taiwan’s supply chain benefits (the United States reduces reliance on China; China reduces reliance on the United States). The pandemic → Taiwan’s supply chain benefits (remote activity sends demand for computers, communications devices, and consumer electronics surging). The AI boom → Taiwan’s supply chain benefits (semiconductors, servers...). --- Taiwan’s rapid economic growth still brings joy to some and hardship to others. 1. Industries benefiting directly—electronics, AI, semiconductors—make enormous profits. 2. Indirect beneficiaries also prosper: finance, for instance. People with money save and invest it, so financial holding companies keep setting profit records. 3. Most industries and people may feel strained and see little benefit, while noticing rapidly rising prices and housing costs. --- Returning to housing: Taiwan’s recent earnings spill into finance and property. Why property? Personally, I think continued housing-price increases keep technology workers motivated to strive. At ASPEED, average compensation is nearly NT$6 million. Add stock appreciation and a substantial proportion of employees may have fortunes above NT$100 million. Without rising housing prices, many might feel ready to retire comfortably. Rising prices keep employees at ASPEED and other technology companies working instead of thinking daily about retirement at forty or forty-five. Imagine an ASPEED employee approaching forty, in the prime of their working life, with savings and shares worth 80 million. If homes cost only 10–20 million, some capable employees might choose a comfortable retirement. But if prices rise from 20 million to 60 million, that employee may reluctantly keep working hard and stop thinking about retiring.