Trends & Emerging Technology

When the Giants Enter: What Comes Next for Single-Technology Startups?

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Robin’s commentary (as of July 2023)

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Collected in Robin Shen’s Field Notes · Content type and attribution are shown above

English translation of the Chinese post originally published 2023-07-01. Translated 2026-11-05 with AI assistance. Historical figures and claims have not been updated or independently verified. 中文原文

Reading guide

After Apple announced Vision Pro, Robin considered the options for small startups around the world that had spent years developing a single technology, such as eye tracking or gesture recognition. Startups with outstanding, clearly leading technology could become acquisition targets. Strong technology, a comprehensive patent portfolio, and a capable team could also attract a buyer seeking next-generation development talent. Others with ordinary technology but valuable patents could sell those while they still had value. Most laggards would gradually disappear. Headset makers lacking a developer ecosystem or price advantage against Meta Quest 3 and Apple Vision Pro would, he expected, mostly exit.

Key points

  • Small startups with leading technology may be acquired by large technology companies.
  • Those with ordinary technology can consider selling patents while they retain value.
  • Most small headset makers without ecosystem or pricing advantages are likely to exit.
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Full text — English translation

When a giant enters, what comes next for small startups around the world developing a single technology? Apple announced Vision Pro, and influencers who tried it proclaimed that they had seen the future. It uses technologies such as eye tracking and gesture recognition. What is next for the small startups that have invested in developing these technologies over many years, now that a giant has entered so forcefully? Possible next steps for startups worldwide working on eye tracking and gesture recognition: 1. Startups with exceptional technology and an absolute lead will become acquisition targets for major technology companies. 2. Those with leading technology, comprehensive patent portfolios, and strong teams still have acquisition opportunities. The buyer would mainly acquire the team to develop next-generation applications. 3. Those with ordinary technology but some good patents and distinctive know-how can carefully consider selling assets, such as patents, while they still have value. 4. The great majority of related startups whose technology lags will gradually fade away. ----- Headset hardware manufacturers face the US$499 Meta Quest 3 in the consumer market and Apple Vision Pro at the developer level. Even with a headset, if they lack a developer ecosystem, cannot match Meta’s pricing, and offer an experience far behind Apple’s, it is reasonable to expect the great majority of small headset startups to exit.

These articles are personal notes, book excerpts, and collected reprints. Figures and events reflect the time of the original publication, are not current information, and do not constitute investment advice.

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