The iPhone Launched a 15-Year Mobile-Internet Wave: VC Must Refocus on Technology for the Next 15 Years

Originally published 2022-04-19Robin’s commentary (as of April 2022)

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English translation of the Chinese post originally published 2022-04-19. Translated 2026-10-30 with AI assistance. Historical figures and claims have not been updated or independently verified. 中文原文

Reading guide

Robin recalls Steve Jobs announcing three new products in January 2007, before the audience realized they were one product: the iPhone. It launched a fifteen-year mobile-internet wave, taking the global online population from hundreds of millions to billions. Innovations in business models rested on one revolutionary product. Robin says that venture capital spent the previous fifteen years pursuing rapid business-model innovation, with every software company’s market capitalization far exceeding that of hardware companies. Looking ahead another fifteen years, he argues that the windfall from massive growth in internet traffic is gone. New change and energy are needed, so VCs at the frontier must refocus on the opportunities and transformations that technological innovation can bring. These are his views from April 2022.

Key points

The iPhone’s 2007 launch began a fifteen-year mobile-internet wave.
The previous fifteen years: VC pursued rapid business-model innovation.
The next fifteen years: with the traffic-growth windfall gone, refocus on technological innovation.
A view expressed in April 2022.

A magnifying lens examines layered signals and data textures, suggesting technological exploration and judgment. — Trends & technologyThematic illustration · AI generated

Full text — English translation

Time for a thought from Robin. In January 2007, Steve Jobs said at an Apple launch event that he would introduce three new products: a new music player, the long-awaited Apple phone, and a newly designed internet device. Once the presentation began, the audience suddenly realized that these were not three new products, but the iPhone. It ultimately launched a fifteen-year mobile-internet wave. During the fifteen years beginning in 2007, the number of people online worldwide grew from hundreds of millions to billions. People were no longer tied to a PC. They could go online while on the move to watch shows, listen to music, play games, shop, and socialize. All kinds of business-model innovation rested on a single revolutionary product. Fast-forward fifteen years. Throughout that period, VC pursued the astonishing changes brought by rapid business-model innovation. Every software company’s market capitalization far exceeded that of hardware companies. But looking ahead another fifteen years from today, the windfall from massive growth in internet traffic is gone. New change and energy are needed to lay the foundations for the next fifteen years. At the forefront of capital flows and innovation, venture capital must refocus on the changes and opportunities created by technological innovation.

These articles are personal notes, book excerpts, and collected reprints. Figures and events reflect the time of the original publication, are not current information, and do not constitute investment advice.

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